I see many mentions of the Celtics atrocious recent shooting woes, but I have not seen many comparisons of their style to other recent NBA teams and how they are a extreme outlier in terms of 3pt shot attempts. According to my Basketball Reference research the 2024-25 Celtics are only the fourth team with more 3PA than 2PA in a season. I am calling this their shot preference. I believe teams with higher 3PT shot preference are doomed to underachieve in the playoffs. The only other teams to ever do this over regular seasons was the Rockets from 2017-2020, and we all know how it ended for them in the playoffs. :
- 2017-18 Rockets: +0.9% 3pt shot preference (42.3 3PA/g vs 41.9 2PA/g)
- 2018-19 Rockets: +8.0% 3pt shot preference (45.4 3PA/g vs 42.0 2PA/g)
- 2019-20 Rockets: +0.2% 3pt shot preference (45.3 3PA/g vs 45.2 2PA/g)
- 2024-25 Celtics: +15.0% 3pt shot preference (48.2 3PA/g vs 41.8 2PA/g)
Players on teams with higher 3PT preference tend float to open space behind the 3PT line instead of cut to space near the basket, because that is what coaches and practice have conditioned them to do. While this proved effective for the Celtics last year, this season they have taken it to the extreme. Last year they had a 2PT preference of 12%, much lower than the league average 2PT preference of 36%. As the title states, this season they now have a 3PT preference of 15.3% the highest of any team in NBA history.
The more physically and mentally exhausting nature of the playoffs affects some player's focus and flow and inhibits their ability to hit long shots. 3s require touch, focus and finesse not needed to put your head down and drive to the hole for a layup. I think the extra strain of the playoffs combined with the 3PT shot preference is a recipe for bad playoff performances.
