Here are the number of games below 20 points that Tatum, and other stars he gets compared to have performed in the playoffs:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/t/tatumja01/gamelog-playoffs/
Tatum: 37/119 playoff games
Luka: 5/55 playoff games
Giannis: 18/84 playoff games
Jokic: 13/89 playoff games
Steph: 32/155 playoff games
LeBron: 31/292 playoff games
KD: 14/170 playoff games
Harden: 73/173 playoff games
Other than James Harden, who is notoriously known to be an all time playoff dropper and choker, Tatum has the worst percentage of playoff games scoring under 20 points (31% of his total games). 42 of Tatum's 119 playoff games are at 40% from the field or worse.
This may be the worst stat of them all: Tatum has 75 (!!!) games of his 119 in the playoffs where he has shot 33% from 3 or worse. He only has 44 games shooting above 33% from 3. This is a career 37% shooter in the regular season.
We all know Tatum has made strides in his playmaking over the regular season (and usually increases his assists during the playoffs). But his efficiency has been falling off a cliff. Even in the regular season, he shot fucking 34% from 3. We can talk about his defensive versatility as much as we want (he's been awful against the Knicks on that end too), and he is good rebounder, but god damn this is the 3rd playoff run in a row since the 2022 finals where Tatum's offense has fallen off a cliff, and he cannot be depended upon to score consistently.
For comparison to contemporary stars - Jalen Brunson had a bad game 2 (still clinched the game with FTs), but I fully expect him to score 20+ in game 3, similar to how he did in game 1. He had fucking Ausar Thompson breathing down his neck all of the Pistons series and still averaged 31.5 and 8. I respect Brunson so much, dude is 6 feet tall and even in games where his shot isn't falling, I have complete faith he will make the right plays in the 4th quarter. His offensive process is much smarter too, he will attack the paint and get 10-12 foot jumpers and floaters to help even out his scoring.
Haliburton has been clutch, shooting well and winning games against good teams.
Donovan Mitchell almost dropped 50 in game 2 and would've won the game if Hali wasn't so clutch at the end.
Steph is like fucking 35+ and getting hounded by Amen Thompson and an elite Houston defense and found ways to score and play well.
Kawhi damn near lost his knee and was damn good and consistent throughout the Nuggets series.
The only other star who isn't shooting well right now is Ant, and in his defense he is a few years younger than Tatum and also he shot 40% from 3 leading the league in 3's this past season - something Tatum has never done. And I'd argue Ant is playing much better defense currently than Tatum in the playoffs.
Tatum has zero go-to moves. That side-step 3 is abysmal, and he doesn't have consistent aggression in driving to the basket, and sometimes his finishing is horrible. If he's not having a 4-9 from 3PT game, then he's most likely not going to hit 20 or 25 points. He hasn't been passing at some elite level to compensate either. Yes, he played well against the 7 seed injured Magic, but this Knicks series is what really matters. I just don't know if Tatum has it in him to score efficiently against good defenders. He's good at multiple different things, but he is not great at any individual thing. You can say he has "no weaknesses," but clearly if anyone has watched the last 2 games, his weaknesses jump off the screen.
If Tatum doesn't become a dependable scorer from 2PT range (something that every elite playoff player can do - Jokic, Steph, Kawhi, KD, Bron, even Giannis), he will always be a low-floor high-ceiling player. And he hasn't honestly had any high-ceiling performances in a while. Whoever got into Tatum's head the last few years and told him that the only way to play basketball is from drives/kicks and 3's needs to be under investigation. It has destroyed Tatum's offensive versatility and made his game way too dependent on 3's/layups in a weird analytics way.
Calling him top 5 feels wrong too, considering Jokic/Giannis/SGA/Luka are all guys who don't go full quarters without being able to buy a bucket. And if you look at the second half of the top 10, guys like Brunson, Donovan, Steph, Bron, KD, Ant, etc are all guys who don't have multiple duds in a row either. The consistency is what matters, and Tatum doesn't have that yet.
EDIT: Since people wanted more context, here's some updated stats:
Tatum since 2020 playoffs (ignoring the first two years when he was more of a role player)
21/87 games under 20 points.
Regular season vs. Playoff True Shooting:
2019-20 RS: 56.7% (23.4PPG) Playoffs: 56.3% (25.7PPG)
2020-21 RS: 57.6% (26.4PPG) TS Playoffs: 57.7% (30.6PPG)
(this is when it started getting worse)
2021-22 RS: 57.8% (26.9PPG) Playoffs: 56.2% (25.6 PPG)
2022-23 RS: 60.7% (30.1 PPG) Playoffs: 58.5% (27.2 PPG)
2023-24 RS: 60.4% (26.9PPG) Playoffs: 54.9% (25PPG)
2024-25 RS: 58.2% (26.8 PPG) Playoffs: 54% (26.8PPG)
The drop off in regular season to playoff efficiency keeps getting worse and worse. And post-2021, which is the last season when people truly trusted Tatum's 3PT and midrange scoring consistently, he has been scoring less at worse efficiency.
