First off, the Warriors didn't play great on offense. I think some credit is due to Minnesota for that. While their defense wasn't ultra physical it was effective. Perimeter defense wasn't awesome, it was okay. But the interior defense was pretty good. They also did a pretty good job at defending mid range as well.
The refs had a part in Minnesota not playing very physical defense. They were called for stuff in the first half that would not have been called or even noticed in the Rockets series. I think this might have influenced their play.
Julius Randal was really bad. He took a lot of bad shots and looked like he thought he was the focal point of the offense. Maybe that was the game plan but if it was it was a bad one. More likely, that's just how he plays and he's going to be an anchor on the Wolves when he plays. Reminds me very much of Green in the last series—maybe he has a moment in a game in the series but if he plays like he did in game 1 he's going to make the Wolves worse when he's out there.
The Wolves were very timid on offense for most of the game. They took a lot of outside shots early in the game and didn't seem to work hard to get the ball inside until later in the game.
The Warriors were certainly helped by the found money they got out of Draymond and GPII and JK who combined for 8/12 from deep. An off balance Jimmy Butler bank shot 3 that he only put up in an effort to draw a foul at the end of the shot clock would make it 9/13 (70%) on unlikely 3 point baskets.
I have to expect that the Wolves are going to come out much more aggressively both on offense and defense. I expect they will try to get to the basket more and be much more physical on defense.
In the third quarter the Wolves came out much more aggressively on offense and had pretty good success driving to the basket—obviously it was Ant who led that effort.
Naz was also really good for their offense late in the game. He and Ant were a big part of the fake comeback they put together to tighten the game. If I'm the Wolves I'd be ready to reduce Randal's minutes and increase Naz's if I don't like what I'm seeing early.
Draymond was amazing. We all know that. Played great on both sides of the ball. He'll need to be that good again and the Warriors will have to find some more quarters in the couch cushions on offense if they are going to win tonight.
On the Wolves side of things, I think how Randal and Ant approach the game will tell a lot about their chances to win the game. If Ant is aggressive and Randal takes fewer and smarter shots, they will be a lot more efficient on offense. I think the Wolves biggest problem is that they only have one guy who is going to effectively create offense against the Warriors defense. I could see the Warriors still winning tonight unless Minnesota can correct some of this stuff. It would also take some luck from 3 on the Warriors part.
I'm going to predict a narrow Warriors win tonight and I am showing my bias, I admit. Head says narrow Wolves win, heart says narrow Warriors win. Going with my heart since I've got no money on this.