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Watching the game again what Jokic does alot of when Chet or Ihart or whoever is boxing him out, he just shoves you out the way. I think Jwill does a better job of rebounding with Jokic because has a better base and can push back. Some of the other offensive rebounds they got was when they were focused too much on Jokic boxing out we let the others slip. Also alot of those offensive rebounds were just missed layups or bunnies and they'd get the rebound, miss, get the rebound, make.

Getting 5 steals in the first half, and ending up with 8 stocks and 5 threes, along with some key assists, the Bald Eagle was unstoppable tonight. If he continues to give these performances (like he did against Memphis as well), should he start some games this series?

Your hindsight is 20/20 Machiavellian takes treat basketball like it's some kind of formula, like a math problem where if you do A plus B, you always get C (the win). You put something in and you expect a guaranteed output? Not how this works.

As if, the Nuggets, a championship-caliber team just rolls over because they're tired? There's never a guaranteed perfect moment where everything magically lines up.

This is the Playoffs. Losses happen. You take what you can from it, and then you get ready for the next one. If we were just winning all the time, if everything always went our way, honestly, what would be the point of even being a fan? Going through the losses with the players and seeing how they learn and grow from them is what makes watching OKC meaningful.

Ditch the panic attacks. Enjoy the competitiveness of the game and stop thinking about it in absolutes. "Only a Sith deals in absolutes."

He had 6 assists/7 turnovers, our defense did an amazing job limiting his passing

If we can just do a little better limiting him on the glass, I think we have a good formula

Probability

I don’t think there’s a supercomputer or mathematician alive capable of accurately calculating the true probability behind situations like the one we found ourselves in last night.

Sure, there’s the basic logic:

• Your team shoots X% from the line.
• Their team shoots Y%.
• There’s Z seconds on the clock.

From there, you model the outcomes of fouling vs. defending and get a mathematical edge.

But in reality? The variables are way too layered for that approach to hold water every time. Let me explain why last night was one of those moments where the math breaks down:

1.  Jokic Was on the Bench

The best player in the world wasn’t even on the floor. That changes everything about expected offensive output.

2.  Inbounding The Ball

Whatever your inbounds data says over the years, it doesn’t account for who is inbounding. Giddey had a higher probability of successfully getting the ball to Shai—our best free throw shooter.

3.  Risk of a Shooting Foul

Fouling too late = risk of a three-shot foul or even a four-point play. That’s a massive shift in win probability and one that’s hard to quantify ahead of time.

4.  Risk of Fouling Too Early

If you foul 90 feet from the basket, you guarantee no shooting foul—but you also risk leaving too much time on the clock and needing to win the game at the line twice. That exchange introduces a complex risk cycle.

5.  Who You Can Foul

Aaron Gordon, for example, might look like the right guy to foul based on career free throw stats. But he’s clearly improved—put a gym in his house and revamped his shot. Career stats don’t account for offseason development.

Bottom line:

Sometimes the situation is too complex for a model to capture. I’m pro-analytics. I studied probability in business school. I trust math when I bet on sports. And for a 47-year-old, I probably lean on analytics more than most in my age group.

But in this case?

I’m with the defense. Just get the stop and win the damn game.

Up 3 with 13.2 seconds and we foul Jokic for no reason…..oh to play the free throw game? So you are telling me they can hit a 3 and we still get last possession? I’ll take it.

The inexperience went on full display from Coach D all the way down the roster. Forced bad shots and relied on SGA to keep them in it at the end.

When you let a championship team stay in a game until the end, they will find a way to win. That’s what we just witnessed. Tough to watch.

Been a minute since I've posted here -- hope everyone is doing well!

That has got to be one of the most gut-wrenching OKC playoff losses as up there with 2016 Game 6 against GSW. Lost a few hours of sleep because I was so frustrated with that 4th quarter. Here are some of my immediate takeaways:

• We played scared in the 4th quarter: fouling, up 3, with 10 seconds left and Jokic on the bench unable to check in is inexcusable. We have historically one of the best all-time defense in the league, and they didn't have a time-out, we have to give our defense a chance to grind that last possession out. We can't be scared of going into OT as the worst case scenario.
• Half-court offense was extremely stale late: rewatch the last 5 minutes of offfensive possesions here from Justes Baraheni -- we've said this all season long... we need someone other than Shai to step up when the defense collapses on him. Dub & Chet need to make 1-2 buckets here. People are sort of blaming the last minute foul strategy as the reason we lost but losing sight that our offense went into complete turtle mode in the final 5 minutes.
• Fouls & energy on boards: another thing slipping under the radar. We kept letting Denver linger around because we fouled so early and often that they were in the bonus early. I advocate for us to play aggressive because that's what causes turnovers that lead to easy transition points; however, some of the fouls that we had were honestly extremely dumb. Caruso talked about it on the post-game, but there's no reason Caruso should've fouled Jokic on the inbounds 4 feet away from the top of the key. Separately, they had 21 offensive rebounds, translating to 27 2nd chance points. These guys just went through a 7-game grinding series 48 hours before yesterday's game. There's no reason they should play with that much more energy than our guys. It was a lack of focus -- not to single anyone out, but J Dub can't give Aaron Gordon an offensive rebound on a FT miss.
• Shooting is a concern: we've seen this in last year playoffs when the pressure is dialed up a level. We shot 33% against the Mavs from 3s. Last series against the Grizzlies, we shot 31% from 3s. We are getting good open shot quality but these shots just aren't going down. I think the pressure is getting into these guys' heads... Isaiah Joe who is one of the best shooters i've seen, bricked one off an open three last night.
• Thoughts moving forward: I called Thunder in 6 before the series started, and i'm still sticking with it. I was uneasy when I called it and the reason I had some hesitation: Denver is probably approaching playoffs now as icing on the cake. They've probably overperformed expectations with firing Malone/Booth. This allows them to play a bit more loose. Meanwhile, the Thunder are trying to play up to regular season expectations as one of the best teams in NBA history and we're in the same position in the playoffs that we were at last season so I bet players are using this series as a measuring stick for growth. I don't think it's going to be about us beating Denver, but about whether or not we can beat ourselves. We need Dub and Chet to step up & unfortunately, I feel like Dub is in his own head in these pressure situations. Something to monitor moving forward.

Let's go get Game 2!

And realize that this Denver team all but gave up mentally at the end of the half and about midway through the 3rd. Yet, we let them hang around with horribly bad 3 pt shots, strange rotations, FT shooting, and finally a lack of intensity.

We’re a younger team that was rested. There is no reason Denver should have hung with us with everything they went through in their last series. We should have been balls-to-the-wall running, sprinting, nonstop pressure, high intensity defense the entire game.

Also, jokic is a phenomenal player…no doubt. He’s ONE guy with 4 others on the floor. Take away his ability to distribute and make him work to score. That’s it. We don’t need to screw with our offensive gameplan to go at him to foul him out. It completely ruined our flow. Rather, why not go small? Pull him out of the paint with JWill or Chet and open the lane more for our guards to drive and dish.

We were exposed a little bit last night. Mark has some flaws. The team is a little weak still mentally. The game seemed like it felt too big and fast for some players at times (Chet). Hope we don’t go the way of the rockets here….

Going down 0-2 heading into Denver is a borderline death sentence. I’m as mad as the last guy about how we managed the end of that game but we have to move on. If we lose the next game, we could genuinely be talking about getting swept and we have to realize that.

If we win comfortably and if we're in control from start to finish, we'll have the clear advantage going into the next two games. The series will be on our own terms and all the pressure will be on the Nuggets. We'll be the team with the momentum. On paper, it's totally fair to expect the team to win at least 1 game on the road. Most good teams hope to steal a game on the road. For a great team based on the season we just had, we hope to win two on the road and expect winning one as the bare minimum.

If we pull out a convincing and controlled win, that would be huge. I honestly feel like the way we perform today greatly affects the next two games.

Win comfortably without any scares, I'd say we have a 70% chance of taking the next two games.

Win a nailbiter, I wouldn't be confident one bit.

Lose, we're screwed. I would rather win today, lose both games in Denver, and make a last stand at home in Game 5 instead of heading over there down 0-2 and run the risk of actually being swept.

Look, I’m as disgusted as the rest of you. We had no business losing that game. So many things we can point to but I’m going to try to stay positive. It’s 0-1, LOTS of basketball remains in this series. We will come back stronger after this punch to the mouth. OKC ties it up game 2 and then we just have to get one back in Denver. Let’s not lose all faith now!!

He hasn’t been able to get to the rim at will in the playoffs. His midrange hasn’t been falling. He hasn’t been getting to the foul line as often. His play has not the Thunders biggest problem but he needs to be better.

Cavs down and now Celtics just might, Brunson seems scary!

I don't think it's fair to the team or our fellow fans to become gloomy whenever we suffer a loss or deviate from a preferred outcome. I've supported this team for over a decade and we are in the best position we've been in years. The last thing the team needs to face in challenging times like these is an unsupportive fan base. We all live real lives. We all experience challenges. Could you imagine your close friends doubting you every time you hit a bump in the road?

We need to tighten up and come together as fans. I am very sure the Thunder will win this series and the NBA championship. Let's make it a little easier for them by letting them know that we'll always have their backs. The last thing they should have to fear after losing is disappointing us. Champions never give up. You don't deserve to support this team if you're always in doubt of reaching the ultimate goal. Pitfalls are just obstacles, they are not the destination. Thunder Up.

I didn’t see it coming but it’s very likely we all bounce back and win game 2. Would be shocked for any of these teams to go down 0-2

That black jersey is a curse always losing in painful just watch all the previous game on that jersey... I miss the Blue and white Shirts in the crowd

I seriously think Mark is way too stubborn and doesnt understand real basketball because wtf is this

We lost Game 1. Blame it on whoever/whatever you want but our Coach and players got us here. Now's not the time to fill the Subreddit with negative energy. Our boys need us, and we need to bounce back.

If our team can carry 0-0 mentality so can we. It's the playoffs and losses will happen. Next game is tomorrow. We got knocked down, it's time to Thunder Up.

To me the saddest part of the night is that this is probably AC's best ever game and to have it end like this was pretty sad.

Oh well, he will just have to do it again next game and keep building his case for finals MVP.

Forcing Jokic to be a scorer is the best way to beat this team. Now just gotta keep him off the boards on his own misses.

Love what I’m seeing so far!🌩️

3s will fall eventually… right guys…?

That’s it. That’s the post. If you gonna doom about how terrible it is, you should be branded.

Does anyone think JDub heaved it way to early, like I reckon he could have got to half court , he threw it with like 2 seconds on the clock, I feel like he could have got a much better look.

Even after AG hit the go ahead basket basically all the team thought it was over or looked over to see if there was a time out and then a quick realisation of oh damn we gotta run it up the floor.

They looked rusty for chunks at a time against a worn down nuggets team.

Early in the first the commentators mentioned there had been 11 Thunder players featured at that point. The response from the co-host was “AS ADVERTISED”. The later the game got the less he included others.

I know it’s a big game and there’s a “core group” but damn some of those guys needed a breather and Thunder basketball has been multiple looks all game with fresh legs always ready to go. We didn’t get here playing only 7 guys like other teams bc WE HAVE DEPTH!

We let both bigs get 5 fouls and play on eggshells lowkey. Why didn’t we get more J Williams?? If anything, that gives the bigs an extra rotation for rest and he’s not a bum! Our big shot guys like Joe and Wiggins weren’t to be seen either!

Two biggest issues downs the stretch: 1- Shai dunk to put us up by 3 with (15 seconds or less). They let him run to the rim uncontested, he’s gotta pull that down and make them foul him!! We were up by one with enough time to hold out and close the game!

2- Chet. Bro missed BOTH free throws?!. We’ve seen this from him before, the pressure cooker moments break him.

I honestly wasn’t buying the “inexperience is going to catch up to the Thunder” narrative but after that game, it’s got me sus already.

We have to LOCK IN, chat!!

UFC, 123, ABC, OKC in 5!

The Coach of the Year and Executive of the Year awards have already been announced—MVP is the only remaining award.

By tradition, the MVP is unveiled either during the first round or within the first three games of the semifinals, and the announcement sometimes takes place before the recipient’s next home game so that the celebration can include the fans. However, this tradition has been broken in recent years. I think the NBA does not want people to guess easily who the MVP is, so that they don't watch it live.

In 2024, the award was announced on May 8, which was one day before OKC vs. Mavs semifinals Game 2 at Oklahoma City’s home arena and two days after Game 2 of the Nuggets vs Twolves semifinals at the Nuggets’ home arena. Some people guessed Shai or Luka would be MVP based on the announcement date, but they were wrong. The celebration took place in Game 5 (May 12) in Denver.

In 2024, the NBA released the award schedule ahead of time on May 6, two days before the announcement date of May 8.

Since the NBA has not yet released the MVP announcement schedule (and they will not suddenly announce it for the sake of TV ratings), the MVP announcement will be made no earlier than May 9. Today is May 7.

It will likely occur around Game 3 or 4 in Denver. That timing will lure people to watch the annoucement live. An announcement before a game in Denver might create the illusion that Jokić will be MVP—but the NBA will likely again surprise us, as they did last year.

Based on the fact that the NBA has not released the announcement schedule yet, I predict that Shai will be the MVP.

We were the better team in that game, we can play better while they can’t. Had a bad 1 minute stretch to finish the game but proved we should be coming out of this series when it’s all said and done. Feel free to be upset about the loss but the team will come out of this better and we’ll move on.

Also let’s try and keep the overreactions to a minimum. No need to start abusing our own team, can promise you they feel worse about it than you do.

Ouch

It’s Game 1 and we dropped a close game to lose by 1 possession.

Joker had an enormous game and dropped 42/22. The third highest scoring game of his playoff career and the only one with that many boards.

Coach made a mistake with the fouling. He’ll learn from that and it won’t happen again.

I’ve watched a lot of Nuggets ball this year and they are the definition of rocks or diamonds. We’re defending well on the perimeter and if we keep it up and lock in on defense in general, it will disrupt their momentum and they will start slumping.

Milwaukee started 0-2 against Brooklyn in the 2nd round in 2021.

Toronto did the same against Milwaukee when they won in 2019.

All that being said, SGA needs to show them why he’s the MVP and we need our guys to get going on offense.

We looked far from our best and it was still only a one possession game.

Im a Celtics fan and I think both of us can melt in our misery tonight (we just set an all time record for most missed 3s in a game)

I get so freaking excited when they do something on defense that I keep calling them by each others’ names. My wife looked at me and said, “Honestly? You can’t keep them apart?” My response: “I don’t see color. All I see is fucking heart.”

TTFU!

Especially the way they did it. If you do that bonehead strategy you’re SUPPOSED TO BURN SOME CLOCK. Like holy fuck, just terrible coaching. There were two great opportunities to play straight up defense and get a stop. I don’t get how you see Jokic on the sideline and think it’s a good idea to let him back in the game. We could have full court pressed and won so easily. One of the best defenses of all time and we resort to fouling up 3. Which puts the pressure back on us to make the free throws. I don’t care. I’ll never support doing that in the clutch. Just let them play. So fucking pissed, man.

As much as I love reading this Reddit sub, I’d also like to find a good source for detailed and analytical reporting. Who’s the best? For example, I’d like to read a solid breakdown of last night’s game and the matchup moving forward. I do not have a subscription to the Oklahoman and will not get one because I’m not near OKC.

Nuggets got a bunch of guys that make winning plays and hit big shots. We got a bunch of guys that come up small in the big moments. That's gonna be the narrative unless some guys step up.

The Thunder hadn't lost a game since April 6th. They weren't going to win every game in the playoffs. It sucks they closed out poorly and the game didn't go our way but the good news is the Thunder won 32-8 on the road this season. And a 7 game series is a long series. Let them taste this home court defeat and adjust to it. Our team has made incredible adjustments all year long. This series won't be any different. No need for Gloom in Doom. We waited a week for a game and this was the result but it's ok we play again Wednesday!

Denver is still worn down and beat up you could see it on some of their guys tonight. You think Jokic can keep putting up 30 shot attempts a night while being picked apart with Turnovers. Of Course he feasted on some rebounds because he was missing shots under the rim. The Nuggets had to fight and Claw to get the win tonight and we had to get in our own way. They still need 3 more wins against the Number 1 team in the NBA!

Also for the Chet free throw griefers. Here's an actual stat from the last 4 Playoff games for chet from the line. 5 of 6, 3 of 4, 5 of 6, and 6 of 6. One of those games he helped fuel a giant comeback win and had 5 3 pointers. Players aren't going to be perfect and are going to let you down but don't let that sour your outlook for the rest of the playoffs.

1. OKC dominated on the defensive end for three and a half quarters.
2. Chet had a terrible game, I’m confident he will have a better game 2.
3. It wasn’t Joker getting his rebounds that killed us. It was Westbrook and Gordon being in double digit rebounds.
4. A better game from any one of Wiggins, Joe, Dubb, Chet or Wallace and we coast to a victory.
5. I hope to never see Mark employ the foul when up three outside of the last two seconds of the game. A lot went right for Denver but this is the only thing we did “wrong” (missed free throws are part of the game, the missed dunk is inexcusable) but there is no excuse for not letting the best defense in the league defend.

If anything this game showed us how big of an uphill battle Denver still has. The talent gap was still very apparent for most of the game. They have the best player on the court, but every game we have the best 2-6 best players on the court. I picked OKC in 7 in this exact series before it began and I’m sticking to that. Thunder the f**k up.